Feb 032016
 

In SEC Form 4 filings, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) has disclosed that on each of the first nine trading days of 2016, on each of the last three trading days of January, and on each of the first three trading days of February, it has added to its stake in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) at prices of $75 – $80 per share.  Berkshire has accounted for an average of 25 percent of the volume of PSX shares on four of those days.  This additional investment of approximately $964 million ($634 million in early January and $330 million in late January and early February) has resulted in Berkshire owning 74.0 million shares of Phillips 66, or 14.0 percent of its outstanding shares.  Berkshire’s stake in Phillips 66, at its closing price of $79.10 on February 3, is valued at $5.9 billion and is its sixth largest stock holding.

Since it holds over 10 percent of the shares of Phillips 66, Berkshire is required to report changes to its position on SEC Form 4.  Berkshire first revealed owning over 10 percent of Phillips 66 stock in August, 2015.  This year’s purchases are the first Berkshire has made since September.  It is likely that this additional investment in Phillips 66 was made by Warren Buffett’s portfolio managers, Todd Combs and/or Ted Weschler.

Investing.com and ValueWalk have published this blog post.

 Posted by at 8:47 pm
Jan 292016
 

In SEC Form 4 filings, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) has disclosed that on each of the first nine trading days of 2016, through January 14, and on each of the last three trading days through January 29, it has added to its stake in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) at prices of $75 – $80 per share.  Berkshire has accounted for an average of 25 percent of the volume of PSX shares on four of those days.  This additional investment of approximately $825 million ($634 million in early January and $198 million in late January) has resulted in Berkshire owning 72.3 million shares of Phillips 66, or 13.7 percent of its outstanding shares.  Berkshire’s stake in Phillips 66, at its closing price of $80.15 on January 29, is valued at $5.8 billion and is its sixth largest stock holding.

Since it holds over 10 percent of the shares of Phillips 66, Berkshire is required to report changes to its position on SEC Form 4.  Berkshire first revealed owning over 10 percent of Phillips 66 stock in August, 2015.  This month’s purchases are the first Berkshire has made since September.  It is likely that this additional investment in Phillips 66 was made by Warren Buffett’s portfolio managers, Todd Combs and/or Ted Weschler.

 Posted by at 9:29 pm
Jan 292016
 

In a University of Maryland, Robert H. Smith School of Business article, “Will Pollsters Be Surprised (Again)?”, I discuss prediction markets with respect to the 2016 Presidential Election:

SMITH BRAIN TRUST — Designing a good presidential poll can be tricky. Just ask Gallup, which missed the mark in 2012.David Kass, an economist at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, takes a different approach. Rather than worrying about things like sample selection and response bias, he simply follows the money on prediction markets.
Odds and lines: Betting on politics is mostly illegal in the United States, but online investors (maybe “gamblers” is the better term) can trade shares on U.S. candidates in places like Ireland.
Price discovery: “I never bet on any of them,” says Kass, who has followed the markets closely since 2004. “I just want the information.” He says the accuracy of the markets has been astounding. “People are betting to win,” he says. “It’s pure price discovery by the market.”
No political revolution: Recent polls show Bernie Sanders edging ahead of Hillary Clinton in Iowa, where caucus-goers will gather Monday. But PredictWise, a prediction market aggregator, shows that people with money on the line are sticking with Clinton by a 2-to-1  margin.
Terp power: Elsewhere, if you think Smith School MBA Carly Fiorina can win the Republican nomination, one penny gets you $1 on PredictIt, which lets traders buy and sell shares during the election season.
It’s gonna be YUGE: If you think Donald Trump will grab the GOP nomination, you could have made a killing in October, when trading on his $1 shares hovered around 20 cents. On Wednesday, after he announced his withdrawal from tonight’s Fox News debate, his shares climbed 3 points to 50 cents.
Market vindication: “It’s far more accurate than any pollster or pundit that I follow,” Kass says. Regardless, he says conventional polling still has value. “Pollsters are useful like stock market analysts,” he says. “You need information.” 

 Posted by at 8:14 am
Jan 192016
 

In SEC Form 4 filings, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) has disclosed that on each of the first nine trading days of 2016, through January 14, it has added to its stake in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) at prices of $75 – $80 per share.  Berkshire has accounted for an average of 25 percent of the volume of PSX shares on four of those days.  This additional investment of approximately $625 million has resulted in Berkshire owning 69.8 million shares of Phillips 66, or 13.1 percent of its outstanding shares.  Berkshire’s stake in Phillips 66, at its closing price of $78.67 on January 19, is valued at $5.5 billion.

Berkshire has been reporting its updated holding with a two-day lag.  Since it holds over 10 percent of the shares of Phillips 66, it is required to report changes to its position on SEC Form 4.  Berkshire first revealed owning over 10 percent of Phillips 66 stock in August, 2015.  This month’s purchases are the first Berkshire has made since September.  It is likely that this additional investment in Phillips 66 was made by Warren Buffett’s portfolio managers, Todd Combs and/or Ted Weschler.

This blog post has been published by Investing.com and ValueWalk.

 Posted by at 8:36 pm
Jan 152016
 

In SEC Form 4 filings, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) has disclosed that on each of the first eight trading days of 2016, through January 13, it has added to its stake in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) at prices of $75 – $80 per share.  Berkshire has accounted for an average of 25 percent of the volume of PSX shares on four of those days.  This additional investment of approximately $570 million has resulted in Berkshire owning 69.0 million shares of Phillips 66, or 12.9 percent of its outstanding shares.  Berkshire’s stake in Phillips 66, at its closing price of $78.47 on January 15, is valued at $5.4 billion.

Berkshire has been reporting its updated holding with a two-day lag.  Since it holds over 10 percent of the shares of Phillips 66, it is required to report changes to its position on SEC Form 4.  Berkshire first revealed owning over 10 percent of Phillips 66 stock in August, 2015.  This month’s purchases are the first Berkshire has made since September.  It is likely that this additional investment in Phillips 66 was made by Warren Buffett’s portfolio managers, Todd Combs and/or Ted Weschler.

 Posted by at 9:15 pm
Jan 142016
 

In SEC Form 4 filings, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) has disclosed that on each of the first seven trading days of 2016, through January 12, it has added to its stake in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) at prices of $75 – $80 per share.  This additional investment of approximately $450 million has resulted in Berkshire owning 67.4 million shares of Phillips 66, or 12.6 percent of its outstanding shares.  Berkshire’s stake in Phillips 66, at its closing price of $79.28 on January 14, is valued at $5.3 billion.

Berkshire has been reporting its updated holding with a two-day lag.  Since it holds over 10% of the shares of Phillips 66, it is required to report changes to its position on SEC Form 4.

 Posted by at 8:39 pm
Jan 132016
 

In SEC Form 4 filings, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) has disclosed that on each of the first six trading days of 2016 it has added to its stake in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) at prices of $75 – $80 per share.  This additional investment of approximately $400 million has resulted in Berkshire owning 66.6 million shares of Phillips 66, or 12.5 percent of its outstanding shares.  Berkshire’s stake in Phillips 66, at its closing price of $75.25 on January 13, is valued at $5 billion.

 Posted by at 11:38 pm
Jan 042016
 

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A declined by 12.5 percent in 2015 to close at $197,800.  The Class B shares fell by 12.1 percent in 2015 and closed at $132.04.

Warren Buffett, in his most recent annual letter to shareholders, provided a 50 year time series of the performance of Berkshire’s stock price versus the S&P 500 with dividends included.  Since the total return to the S&P 500 in 2015 was +1.2 percent, then Berkshire’s Class A shares underperformed that market index by 13.7 percent.  This was fourth worst relative performance for Berkshire in its 51 year history.  Only in the years 1999 (relative performance = -40.9 percent), 1974 (relative performance = – 22.3 percent), and 1990 (relative performance = -20.0 percent) did Berkshire experience larger relative declines in its Class A share price.

This blog post was published by ValueWalk and Investing.com.

 Posted by at 12:12 am
Dec 192015
 

From Your Money & Business (Maryland Public Television – December 17, 2015):

“When stock markets fluctuate, investors get antsy.  Sell before things get worse? Buy up the bargains? What’s the right strategy?  In this edition of Smith Business Close-up with the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, host Jeff Salkin sits down with David Kass, who explains why you should resist the impulse to guess where the market is headed.”

 Posted by at 2:34 pm