dkass

Aug 212019
 

Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, was interviewed on CNBC this morning.  These are the highlights:

(1) The “inverted yield curve” last week was an indication of a “flight to quality” as (foreign) investors purchased U.S. Treasuries in order to receive a positive yield.

(2) The U.S consumer is doing well — spending more and making more.

(3) The odds of a recession are low in the near future.

(4) Resolving the trade war will take a long time.  It is resulting in capital spending declining.  To offset this, we need to resolve the U.S budget, approve USMCA, and resolve Brexit.

(5) The U.S. consumer economy is as big as the entire China economy.  The world needs U.S. growth.  The Federal Reserve will base its decisions on data. Current data do not indicate that some action is needed.

(6) The U.S. economy will grow at 2.3% in 2019 which is very good.

(7) Bank of America is buying back $7.25 billion of its stock every quarter.  If its stock price goes down, then that results in buying back more shares.

 

 Posted by at 9:24 am
Aug 162019
 

David Rubenstein was interviewed on CNBC this morning.  These are the highlights:

(1) We can have a deal with China within 4 months (by December 15?).

(2) We had an inverted yield curve for “10 minutes”.  In 2007 we had an inverted yield curve for 3 months. Recessions follow inverted yield curves by 300 – 500 days.

(3) Presidents tend to not get re-elected when a recession precedes the election.  Only McKinley was re-elected in a recession.

(4) Markets do not like uncertainty. If a deal is reached with China adding certainty to the economic outlook, the markets will respond well.

(5) A deal can be reached with China on (a) China purchasing more from the U.S. (agricultural products), (b) U.S. firms can gain increased access to China and intellectual property being addressed, but (c) China’s 2025 goals with government support of AI and high-tech businesses will not be included in a deal.

(6) Recessions have occurred every 7 years on average in the U.S.  We have gone 10 years since the last recession. We will eventually have another recession.

(7) U.S economy is currently in good shape.  He does not see a recession in the near future.

(8) Although the U.S. has low interest rates, Europe and Japan have negative interest rates.

 

 Posted by at 8:07 am
Aug 142019
 

In an SEC 13F filing released after the market closed today, Berkshire Hathaway revealed an 11% increase ($100 million) in its stake in Amazon during the second quarter of 2019.  This stake is now valued at about $1 billion.  (Todd Combs or Ted Weschler)

No other major changes were made to Berkshire’s portfolio during the second quarter.  Other changes included a 3% increase in its Bank of America holding (Warren Buffett) , as well as a 2% increase in its stake in U.S. Bancorp (Warren Buffett).  It also reduced its stake in Charter Communications by 5% (Todd Combs or Ted Weschler).

The total value of Berkshire’s portfolio equaled $208 billion as of June 30, as compared to $199 billion on March 31.  Its portfolio consisted of 47 stocks.  The top 5 holdings by market value on June 30 were:

(1) Apple — $49.4 billion (Primarily Warren Buffett)

(2) Bank of America — $26.9 billion  (Warren Buffett)

(3) Coca Cola — $20.4 billion (Warren Buffett)

(4) Wells Fargo — $19.4 billion (Warren Buffett)

(5) American Express — $18.7 billion (Warren Buffett)

 Posted by at 4:47 pm
Aug 142019
 

I am quoted in The Washington Post on whether an inverted yield curve signals an upcoming recession.

David Kass, a finance professor at the University of Maryland, cautioned that the yield curve may not be an accurate predictor of a recession under current conditions. Kass said several recessions in the past few decades have been preceded by Federal Reserve interest rate increases.

That is not the case currently.

Kass said negative bond yields in Europe, in which investors receive nothing for their money, may be pushing investors into U.S. Treasurys.

“Foreign investors may be buying long-term U.S. Treasurys in order to earn a positive return,” Kass said. “This would exert downward pressure on the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury securities.”

 Posted by at 1:59 pm
Aug 092019
 

I am quoted in the Washington Post:

“The Dow Jones industrial average, if one goes back to its inception in 1896 and up to the present, has earned 5.6 percent per year on the capital gains of the stocks,” said David Kass, professor of finance at the University of Maryland.

Kass then added another important point: If the dividends those stocks pay to you for owning the stock were used to buy more of the same stock (known as dividend reinvestment), the annual return/gain on the Dow would climb to 10.3 percent per year. That’s a lot. 

If $1,000 were invested in the Dow Jones industrial average at its inception in 1896 (123 years ago), it would be worth $172.5 million today, Kass said

The lesson here is twofold: First, stay in the market because you never know when stocks hit their bottom and rebound. Even Warren Buffett doesn’t know. But they always rebound eventually. Since 1965, the value of the S&P 500 with dividends included has declined in only 11 of the 54 years, or just 20 percent of the time, Kass said. It has gone up in 80 percent of those years.

Sometimes the stock market goes down and stays down for a while. But that’s pretty rare. On only one occasion since 1965, Kass said, has the S&P 500 declined three years in a row. That was between 2000 through 2002, otherwise known as the popping of the dot com bubble.

When my colleague said the Dow was at the same spot in late July of 2019 as it was in January of 2018, he wasn’t including the 2.5 percent or so annual dividend yield that you earn on the Dow. Over many years, as Kass points out, dividend reinvestments supercharge your stock returns.

 Posted by at 4:46 pm
Aug 052019
 

Every U.S. recession since World War II was preceded by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too far, too fast, from much higher levels than those of today.  The Great Recession of 2007-09 was also caused by too much debt in the housing sector.

However, we have not had a trade war since the 1930’s that contributed to the Great Depression. The trade war today could lead to a major U.S. recession in the near future.

 Posted by at 3:26 pm
Aug 032019
 

Berkshire Hathaway released its second quarter earnings report this morning.

The highlights were:

(1) Berkshire Hathaway’s operating earnings declined by 11% during the second quarter, primarily as a result of a 63% decline from insurance underwriting.

(2) Berkshire’s cash position increased to $122 billion from $114 billion at the end of the first quarter.

(3) Berkshire currently holds $200 billion in equities.

(4) Berkshire Hathaway reduced its equity securities in “Commercial, industrial, and other” by about $1.5 billion (cost basis) during the second quarter.  Its SEC Form 13F will be released after the market closes on August 14 and will reveal what changes were made to its equity portfolio during the second quarter.

(5) Berkshire Hathaway purchased only $440 million of its shares during the second quarter.

 Posted by at 9:28 am
Jul 262019
 

In an SEC Form 3 filing last night, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it owned 950 million shares of Bank of America as of July 17.  This stake is currently valued at $29 billion, which is Berkshire’s second largest common stock holding behind its $50 billion stake in Apple.

This represents an increase of $1.5 billion or 6% from the 896,167,600 shares it reported owning at the end of March.

It also puts the stake at 10.4% of the bank’s shares outstanding. The filing says:

The beneficial ownership of the shares of Common Stock reported herein exceeds 10% as a result of the issuer’s repurchases of its own securities, based on the issuer’s most recently announced number of shares of Common Stock outstanding.

 

Buffett says that generally he likes to keep holdings below 10% because that level brings increased regulatory scrutiny, especially for bank stocks.

The Fed, however, has a proposed rule change that could increase the limit to 25%.

At this year’s Berkshire annual meeting,  Buffett said if the rule does change, “there will be companies where we drift up over 10 percent simply because they’re repurchasing their shares. That’s been the case with Wells [Fargo], and it’s been the case with an airline [Delta Air Lines] or two in the last year or so. So, if we like 9.5 percent of a company, we’d like 15 percent better, and you may see us behave a little differently on that in the future.”

 Posted by at 8:31 pm
Jul 172019
 
The Wall Street Journal published my letter to the editor which disagrees with James Grant’s (“The Fed Could Use a Golden Rule”, op-ed, July 12) recommendation for the Federal Reserve to re-introduce a gold standard.
The U.S. began to recover from the Great Depression of the 1930s when President Franklin D. Roosevelt cut the dollar’s ties with gold, which allowed the government to issue more money to lower interest rates. Similarly, the current record-long, 10-year expansion following the Great Recession of 2007-09 was greatly facilitated by the accommodative monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve. No other country uses a gold standard. Gold today isn’t being used as currency, but instead it is an alternative asset class that is being used as a speculative store of value.

Prof. David I. Kass, Ph.D.

University of Maryland

College Park, Md.

 Posted by at 5:17 pm
Jul 162019
 

I am quoted in U.S. News & World Report: “How to Invest in the S&P 500 at All-Time Highs” 

“Since the outlook for the U.S. economy over the next few years is good with GDP projected to grow at 2% or higher, interest rates expected to remain near historically low levels and corporate profits expected to grow, the S&P 500 index continues to be an attractive investment vehicle,” says David I. Kass, clinical professor of finance at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

Kass points to the 2013 shareholder letter from billionaire Warren Buffett. He’s still very much alive, mind you – but wrote that upon his death: “One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.”

 Posted by at 3:47 pm