Britain’s vote to leave the European Union is already having negative consequences in the U.K., but the rest of the world has yawned and “risk-on” animal spirits are back in vogue as the U.S. stock and bond markets hit all-time highs. Otherwise not much has changed in the U.S. Productivity and economic growth remain weak and inequality is worsening, but employment growth is strong. Populism and nationalism increasingly is impacting politics in the U.S. and other countries. In the July-August letter, Bill Longbrake discusses the policy flaws embedded in neoliberalism, which espouses free movement of capital and fiscal austerity. He also explains why interest rates are very low and are likely to remain so for a very long time. Special topics include Italy’s banking crisis, Japan’s revamping of Abenomics, and unexpectedly large inventory destocking in the U.S.
Phillip L. Swagel, a UMD School of Public Policy professor and academic fellow with the Smith School’s Center for Financial Policy, says the current focus on Glass-Steagall is symbolic. “It’s something to propose more than to actually do,” he says. “For (Donald) Trump, it’s a way to highlight (Hillary) Clinton as the candidate of Wall Street, as identified by Bernie Sanders. For the left, it positions them as ‘cracking down on big banks.’”
Not a Financial Crisis Catalyst
Swagel reasserts his 2011 Congressional testimony that counters reinstatement proponents who suggest the repeal of Glass-Steagall spurred the 2008 financial crisis: “The end of the Glass-Steagall restrictions is not well correlated with the failures evident in the recent financial crisis. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers both failed, but these firms had remained investment banks. JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand, combined investment banking and commercial banking and yet weathered the strains of the crisis relatively well. The problems revealed by the crisis seem to be in the riskiness of the activities themselves—subprime lending, for example—and not in the combination of commercial and investment banking.”
The US and global economies are marking time while imbalances continue to build slowly. But, there were two surprising, and not necessarily related, events in June – the US May employment report was dismal; the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) slashed interest-rate projections. In this month’s letter Bill Longbrake explains why neither of these developments is all that surprising. Slower employment growth and low interest rates are here to stay. He believes that the FOMC’s interest rate projections are still too high.
In this month’s letter Bill Longbrake explains why he is putting his “Recession Watch” on the shelf for the time being. He summarizes why recent policy intervention has been successful in papering over significant global imbalances. But, he goes on to explain why policy has been palliative, not curative. Longbrake also examines the rise of populist movements across the globe, including the United States, and their genesis in the 2008 global financial crisis and subsequent policy responses. The remainder of this month’s letter provides updates on GDP, employment, inflation, productivity, financial conditions, and monetary policy in the U.S.
In this month’s letter, Bill Longbrake shares his worries about global economic and political trends along with summaries of similar concerns expressed in the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook and by the editor-in-chief, Zanny Beddoes, of The Economist. He also explores reasons for the surprising strength of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in this year’s presidential campaign. In addition to regular updates about the U.S. economic outlook, he provides a review of a recently published book, The Smartest Places on Earth, by Antoine van Agtmael and Fred Bakker, which describes how brain-belts that are emerging in the U.S. and Europe will reverse the global competitive advantage held in recent years by emerging economies. Read the full letter here.