In this month’s Letter, Bill Longbrake discusses whether the FED’s monetary policy intentions might turn out to be a major mistake that propels the U.S. economy into a premature recession. Based on employment, the U.S. economy is already operating at full capacity. But inflation remains well below the Fed’s target of 2% and has declined over the past three months. The Fed expects to raise short-term interest rates from a range of 1.00-1.25% to 2.75-3.00% over the next two years. However, the market disagrees and only believes rates should be raised to a range of 1.50-1.75%. If the market is right, the FED may be on a policy course with disastrous consequences. There is good reason to be concerned in light of imbalances in the U.S. economy unleashed by the Fed’s unprecedented and extended multi-year manipulation of interest rates to reflate the economy. Bill also discusses other risks (yellow flags) facing the U.S. economy and pending developments in health care legislation and fiscal policy, as well as providing updates on a variety of other economic developments. Read the full letter.