As prospects rise for significant tax reform legislation to be enacted and take effect at the beginning of 2018, this stimulus boost is likely to extend the current expansion and push off the timing of the next recession. But, because the stimulus is coming during the mature phase of the cycle when the economy is already at full employment, it raises the risks of overheating and a potentially tighter monetary policy down the road. Amplifying the business cycle at this point in time is not optimal economic policy. But it is politically necessary for Republicans to deliver at least part of what they have promised to the American public. Bill Longbrake discusses prospects and risks in this month’s letter. He also describes significant policy developments coming out of the 19th Communist Party Congress that will shape China’s social and economic systems for years to come.