September 2019

Several global risks escalated in August and fears of recession surged. But events have unfolded in September that have reduced the perceived threat of imminent recession. The U.K. parliament passed a law requiring Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek an extension in the Brexit negotiations. Italy cobbled together a new EU-friendly government. China and the U.S. backed off belligerent trade rhetoric; President Trump delayed implementation of the most recent round of tariffs until Oct. 15; and both countries agreed to resume discussions. The European Central Bank approved aggressive monetary easing policies. And, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut the federal funds rate for a second time at its meeting on Sept. 18. While recession anxiety has abated, the possibility of recession in coming months remains. In this month’s 2019 Outlook Assessment, Maryland Smith’s Bill Longbrake shows in charts and tables the consequences of a U.S. recession.

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