November 2019

The recession scare of late summer now seems like a bad dream – out of touch with reality. Market participants are ebullient. The U.S. economic expansion, now the longest in history, rolls on with no apparent end in sight. When sentiment is upbeat, risks are underestimated and bad news is ignored. We owe the current era of optimism to the retreat and perceived containment of several significant risks. But the forces that made these risks so threatening remain in place. In the United States, it is clear from the march of data reports that growth is slowing and overheating risk has diminished. A benign soft landing would be welcome indeed. But the excesses and imbalances in the U.S. and global economies remain in place and largely unaddressed.

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