February 2020

Will the coronavirus Covid-19 sink the global economy? In short, no. But there will be damage, particularly in China. And, there is uncertainty about the potential severity of the epidemic and therefore so the possibility of a much worse outcome cannot be ruled out. In the February Longbrake Letter, Maryland Smith’s Bill Longbrake summarizes economic analysis evaluating both the “most likely” and “worst case” scenarios. In the meantime, the U.S. economy continues to perform well. With the exception of business CEOs (perhaps the canary in the coal mine?), confidence and optimism remain at extremely high levels and stock prices progressively made several new daily highs during February.

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